Enrollment Cliff 2026: Graduate Projections by State (WICHE)

Key findings

US high school graduates peaked with the Class of 2025 at 3.8 to 3.9 million and are projected to fall to below 3.4 million by 2041, about 13% fewer than the peak (WICHE, December 2024).
The decline is gradual at first: 3.1% below 2023 by 2030 and 3.4% by 2035, then a steeper drop to 10.3% below 2023 by 2041. WICHE calls it “a slower and steadier decline” than the word “cliff” suggests.
Geography matters more than the national number. By 2041 the West is projected to fall 20%, the Northeast 17% and the Midwest 16%, while the South grows 3%. Hawaii (−33%), Illinois (−32%) and California (−29%) fall most; DC (+31%), Tennessee (+15%) and South Carolina (+14%) grow most.
Colleges already feel it unevenly: fall 2025 undergraduate enrollment rose 1.2% overall but fell 1.6% at private nonprofit colleges (National Student Clearinghouse), and 41.3% of Common App members received fewer applications in 2025–26.
At least 49 public or nonprofit colleges have closed or announced closure since March 2020, plus 40 mergers (BestColleges, April 2026).
Data: free CSV of all 50 states and DC, CC BY 4.0.

Short answer: the “enrollment cliff” is real, but for students applying in 2027 to 2030 it is a slope, and where you live matters more than the national number. According to WICHE’s December 2024 projections, US high school graduates peaked with the Class of 2025 at 3.8 to 3.9 million. By 2030 there will be about 3.1% fewer graduates than in 2023; by 2041, 10.3% fewer, and about 13% fewer than at the peak. The South keeps growing slightly while the West, Northeast and Midwest shrink by 16% to 20%. Colleges are already feeling it unevenly, with private nonprofits losing undergraduates while public universities and community colleges grew.

This page brings together the projections (with a full state table and CSV), what has happened to college enrollment, applications and closures so far, and what it means if you are applying soon.

Where the projections come from

All graduate projections on this page come from one source: the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), Knocking at the College Door, 11th edition, published December 2024 (report PDF). WICHE projects high school graduates for every state from births, K-12 enrollment, progression through school and graduation data. Totals include public and private schools.

We transcribed WICHE’s four regional state tables (2023 reported; 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2041 projected) into the CSV and the table below. National figures quoted in the text use WICHE’s own national chart. One honest caveat: adding up the state tables gives a 2023-to-2041 decline of about 370,000 graduates (−9.9%), slightly smaller than the 388,000 (−10.3%) in WICHE’s national chart. We report both as published and did not adjust either.

WICHE says its earlier editions’ public graduate projections came within about 3% of the actual counts for the first five years. Projections further out carry more uncertainty, especially for migration.

How big is the national decline, and when does it hit?

The peak was the Class of 2025; the steep part comes after 2035. WICHE’s national chart shows the change compared with the Class of 2023, the last year of reported data:

US high school graduates: projected change from the Class of 2023

2025 (peak)+2.6%

2030−3.1%

2035−3.4%

2041−10.3%

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door (December 2024), Figure 2: +96,000 in 2025, −118,000 in 2030, −128,000 in 2035, −388,000 in 2041. Bars scaled to 12%.

Graduating class	Change vs 2023 (WICHE)	What it means
2025	+96,000 (+2.6%)	The peak: 3.8 to 3.9 million graduates
2030	−118,000 (−3.1%)	Gradual decline begins
2035	−128,000 (−3.4%)	A plateau from about 2028–29 to 2034–35
2041	−388,000 (−10.3%)	Below 3.4 million; about 13% under the 2025 peak

Projected change in US high school graduates (public and private) relative to the Class of 2023. Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door (December 2024), Figure 2.

The driver is births. WICHE notes that US births dropped by about 1% in almost every year from 2008 to 2023, including a 4% drop in 2020. Students born in 2008 and later begin graduating in 2026. K-12 Dive’s summary quotes WICHE describing “a slower and steadier decline” than the “cliff” label implies (K-12 Dive).

Which regions shrink, and which grow?

The South is the only region projected to have more graduates in 2041 than in 2023. WICHE projects the West to lose about 20%, the Northeast 17% and the Midwest 16%, while the South grows about 3%.

Projected change in high school graduates by region, 2023 to 2041

South+3%

Midwest−16%

Northeast−17%

West−20%

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door (December 2024). Bars scaled to 25%. The South is the only region projected to grow.

Region	2023 (reported)	2025	2030	2041	Change 2025→2030	Change 2023→2041
South	1,443,229	1,522,182	1,469,633	1,479,933	−3.5%	+3%
West	927,072	936,104	880,140	745,295	−6.0%	−20%
Midwest	760,548	773,993	715,120	638,923	−7.6%	−16%
Northeast	621,474	622,857	575,812	518,267	−7.6%	−17%

High school graduates by region. Source: WICHE state tables; the 2025→2030 column is our arithmetic.

Even the South dips between 2025 and 2030 before recovering, so nearly every region has fewer graduates in the years current high school students will apply. WICHE adds that migration toward the South made its new projections higher there and lower elsewhere compared with its 2020 edition (for 2037: South +4.3%, Northeast −5.4%, West −3.5%, Midwest −1.5%).

Inside the West, California dominates. It produced roughly as many graduates in 2023 as the rest of the region combined, and its projected 29% decline accounts for about three-fourths of the West’s drop. Without California, WICHE says, the West would fall about 10%.

High school graduates by state, 2023 to 2041

Twelve states and DC are projected to grow by 2041; 38 states decline. Seven states fall by more than 20%. Select a column heading to sort.

High school graduates by state: 2023 reported, 2025, 2030 and 2041 projected (public and private combined). Column headings are buttons that sort the table. Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door, December 2024.

Alabama	South	52,954	55,021	52,926	54,262	+1,308	+2%
Alaska	West	8,328	8,722	8,878	7,170	−1,158	−14%
Arizona	West	82,942	85,639	84,186	81,428	−1,514	−2%
Arkansas	South	33,861	36,169	34,255	32,330	−1,531	−5%
California	West	477,531	469,214	435,481	339,022	−138,509	−29%
Colorado	West	64,096	65,716	60,300	56,457	−7,639	−12%
Connecticut	Northeast	44,185	45,634	42,528	42,405	−1,780	−4%
Delaware	South	11,178	11,939	12,106	12,087	+909	+8%
District of Columbia	South	5,747	6,652	8,699	7,529	+1,782	+31%
Florida	South	221,601	234,996	234,121	247,409	+25,808	+12%
Georgia	South	128,074	134,031	127,882	126,851	−1,223	−1%
Hawaii	West	14,290	14,276	12,650	9,582	−4,708	−33%
Idaho	West	22,827	23,623	24,257	25,907	+3,080	+13%
Illinois	Midwest	145,564	144,561	124,210	99,067	−46,497	−32%
Indiana	Midwest	76,805	78,138	72,817	69,494	−7,311	−10%
Iowa	Midwest	37,780	39,747	38,192	36,299	−1,481	−4%
Kansas	Midwest	36,985	38,361	36,660	32,554	−4,431	−12%
Kentucky	South	50,350	51,027	44,440	45,762	−4,588	−9%
Louisiana	South	49,128	53,263	50,745	47,061	−2,067	−4%
Maine	Northeast	14,198	14,056	12,938	12,718	−1,480	−10%
Maryland	South	70,362	74,018	68,766	62,752	−7,610	−11%
Massachusetts	Northeast	75,494	76,935	72,708	69,464	−6,030	−8%
Michigan	Midwest	106,883	104,326	95,746	85,131	−21,752	−20%
Minnesota	Midwest	65,884	67,216	64,403	58,295	−7,589	−12%
Mississippi	South	32,152	33,606	29,644	27,003	−5,149	−16%
Missouri	Midwest	67,229	68,656	64,138	58,880	−8,349	−12%
Montana	West	9,980	10,374	10,692	10,520	+540	+5%
Nebraska	Midwest	24,324	23,862	24,909	23,263	−1,061	−4%
Nevada	West	33,256	35,304	33,321	30,156	−3,100	−9%
New Hampshire	Northeast	15,492	16,484	14,146	13,964	−1,528	−10%
New Jersey	Northeast	109,314	111,084	108,465	107,973	−1,341	−1%
New Mexico	West	21,539	22,472	20,634	17,104	−4,435	−21%
New York	Northeast	205,042	206,184	183,242	150,533	−54,509	−27%
North Carolina	South	115,527	121,741	118,193	122,719	+7,192	+6%
North Dakota	West	7,706	8,642	9,291	8,690	+984	+13%
Ohio	Midwest	132,363	143,303	134,175	124,461	−7,902	−6%
Oklahoma	South	46,211	50,332	49,595	46,250	+39	0%
Oregon	West	41,203	42,752	39,182	33,272	−7,931	−19%
Pennsylvania	Northeast	141,089	137,304	129,575	116,928	−24,161	−17%
Rhode Island	Northeast	11,213	11,551	10,366	9,492	−1,721	−15%
South Carolina	South	53,941	57,865	57,870	61,735	+7,794	+14%
South Dakota	West	9,705	10,344	10,677	10,357	+652	+7%
Tennessee	South	70,783	75,761	74,906	81,459	+10,676	+15%
Texas	South	393,596	408,251	399,411	414,861	+21,265	+5%
Utah	West	47,592	50,172	48,443	44,908	−2,684	−6%
Vermont	Northeast	5,765	5,807	5,518	4,921	−844	−15%
Virginia	South	100,051	104,008	100,188	93,984	−6,067	−6%
Washington	West	80,405	83,021	79,259	73,935	−6,470	−8%
West Virginia	South	18,003	18,113	16,084	13,388	−4,615	−26%
Wisconsin	Midwest	67,132	68,507	63,368	56,910	−10,222	−15%
Wyoming	West	6,137	6,385	5,873	4,709	−1,428	−23%

Download the table as CSV (51 rows plus 4 regional totals; includes the 2035 projection; UTF-8).

Largest projected declines (top) and increases (red), 2023 to 2041

Hawaii−33%

Illinois−32%

California−29%

New York−27%

West Virginia−26%

Wyoming−23%

New Mexico−21%

Michigan−20%

Oregon−19%

Pennsylvania−17%

District of Columbia+31%

Tennessee+15%

South Carolina+14%

North Dakota+13%

Idaho+13%

Florida+12%

Delaware+8%

South Dakota+7%

Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door (December 2024), state tables. Bars scaled to 35%. Bar length shows the size of the change; red bars are increases.

Five high-population states, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania, account for about 285,000 of the roughly 370,000 fewer graduates in the state tables, about three-fourths of the national decline, matching WICHE’s own estimate. Between 2025 and 2030 alone, 42 of the 51 jurisdictions are projected to shrink, led by New Hampshire (−14.2%), Illinois (−14.1%), Kentucky (−12.9%) and Mississippi (−11.8%). DC (+30.8%) and North Dakota (+7.5%) grow fastest over those five years.

Note one correction to a widely repeated claim: some coverage names West Virginia (−26%) as the largest state decline. In WICHE’s own state tables, Hawaii (−33%), Illinois (−32%), California (−29%) and New York (−27%) all fall further.

What has happened to college enrollment so far?

Overall enrollment is still growing, but private nonprofit colleges are already losing undergraduates. The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s final fall 2025 report (January 15, 2026) counted 19.4 million students, up 1.0%:

Sector (fall 2025)	Undergraduate change vs fall 2024
Community colleges	+3.0%
Public 4-year	+1.4%
Private nonprofit 4-year	−1.6%
For-profit	−2.0%
All undergraduates (16.2 million)	+1.2%
Graduate students (3.2 million)	−0.3% (total)

Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, fall 2025 final enrollment estimates.

First-year (freshman) enrollment was about 2.5 million, essentially flat (−0.2%), with public four-year freshmen up 1.9% and private four-year sectors down about 10,000 each.

Applications tell a similar story. Common App’s 2025–26 end-of-season report counted 1,527,328 first-year applicants (+2%) sending a record 10,786,782 applications (+6%), or 7.06 per student. But account creation fell for the first time since 2016–17, international applicants fell 10% (India −15%), and 41.3% of member colleges saw fewer applications than the year before. Demand is growing, but it is concentrating at fewer schools.

Are colleges closing because of the cliff?

Some are, and the risk is highest at small, tuition-dependent private colleges. BestColleges’ closure tracker, updated April 16, 2026, counts at least 49 public or private nonprofit colleges or campuses that closed or announced a closure since March 2020, plus 40 mergers, and at least 12 that merged or closed in 2025 (BestColleges). Closures usually have several causes, so not all of them can be blamed on demographics.

A model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, reported by Higher Ed Dive in December 2024, estimated what a smaller student pool could do:

Scenario (Philadelphia Fed model)	Projected effect
Abrupt 15% enrollment drop vs 2019	Up to 80 additional closures per year, more than double the average rate
Gradual 15% decline	Closures about 8.1% above average, roughly 5 more a year
Back-test of the model	84 of the 100 institutions it rated riskiest closed within three years

Source: Higher Ed Dive, December 5, 2024, reporting a Philadelphia Fed model.

The same report notes that for-profit colleges make up the large majority of closures because they rely on tuition for about 90% of revenue, while public institutions “hardly ever close,” though they may merge.

Will it be easier to get into college from 2027 to 2030?

For many colleges, somewhat; for the most selective, probably not; and no study has shown standards dropping yet. The national decline before 2030 is small (about 3% below 2023, or about 5.6% below the 2025 peak in the state tables), so most students applying from 2027 to 2030 will see little direct change. What changes more is how colleges compete. Here is a reasonable reading of the data, which is our interpretation rather than a published finding:

If you are applying to…	What the data suggests	Why
Highly selective colleges (admit under 25%)	Little or no easing	Applications to Common App’s most selective members still rose 3% in 2025–26
Less selective or regional private colleges in the Northeast, Midwest or West	More competition for you: aid offers, rolling admission, outreach	These regions shrink 6% to 8% between 2025 and 2030; private nonprofits already lost undergraduates in fall 2025
Public flagships and colleges in the South	Roughly stable competition	The South’s pool stays near its peak; public four-year enrollment is growing
A small private college with falling enrollment	Check its finances before you commit	Tuition-dependent institutions face the highest closure risk

Interpretation by The Homework Site based on WICHE, NSC, Common App and Philadelphia Fed data; not a prediction for any single college.

Two things the cliff does not change. First, colleges still sort applicants by grades and, increasingly, by test scores, as more selective schools reinstate requirements (see our tracker of colleges requiring the SAT again). Second, a smaller pool does not lower the bar for scholarships tied to scores, such as National Merit.

What students applying in 2027 to 2030 can do

The practical moves are the same ones that always mattered, with the demographic data as a tiebreaker.

Know your GPA precisely. Grades remain the core of any application. Calculate it with the high school GPA calculator, project where it will land by senior fall with the cumulative GPA calculator, and understand weighted vs unweighted GPA, since colleges recalculate differently. Grade inflation has made GPAs less distinctive, as our grade inflation study shows.
Have a test plan, even for test-optional schools. Estimate where you stand with the SAT score calculator and compare it with what counts as a good SAT score for your target colleges. If the ACT suits you better, try the ACT score calculator. Our SAT and ACT averages by state show how your state’s test takers compare.
Look at colleges in shrinking regions. Colleges in the Northeast, Midwest and West that are competing for fewer local graduates may offer stronger merit aid. Ask directly about scholarships and net price.
Check a college’s health. Look for enrollment trends, recent mergers and closure news before you commit, especially at small private colleges.
Apply to a balanced list. Record application volume (10.8 million applications in 2025–26) means selective schools stay competitive even as the pool shrinks.

Limitations

Projections, not counts. Everything after 2023 is a WICHE projection based on current trends in births, migration and graduation; WICHE’s track record is within about 3% for the first five years.
Two slightly different national totals. WICHE’s national chart (−388,000 by 2041) and the sum of its state tables (about −370,000) differ; we show both.
The “easier admission” table is interpretation. We found no dataset linking the demographic decline to lower GPA or test-score thresholds.
Closure counts depend on the tracker. Different trackers include different institution types and campuses; BestColleges counts public and nonprofit institutions only.
Dropped: a widely shared count of nonprofit colleges closing in 2026 (the source could not be opened) and a 2025 closure count from a trade tracker we could not verify.

Cite this page

Citation (APA style)

The Homework Site. (2026, October 15). The enrollment cliff: High school graduate projections by state and what they mean for applicants. https://thehomeworksite.com/research/enrollment-cliff/ (data: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door, 2024).

The CSV is free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with credit to The Homework Site; please also cite WICHE as the source of the projections.

Sources

Lane, P., Falkenstern, C., & Bransberger, P. (2024). Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates. WICHE, December 2024. wiche.edu
K-12 Dive, “High school graduates to peak in 2025 with slightly deeper than expected decline” (December 2024). k12dive.com
National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, fall 2025 final enrollment estimates (January 15, 2026). nscresearchcenter.org
Common App, End-of-Season Report 2025–26: First-Year Application Trends (August 20, 2026). commonapp.org
Higher Ed Dive, Philadelphia Fed college-closure model (December 5, 2024). highereddive.com
BestColleges, closed colleges list and statistics (updated April 16, 2026). bestcolleges.com

Checked October 15, 2026. Spot an error? Tell us.

Frequently asked questions

What is the enrollment cliff?

The enrollment cliff is the expected drop in US college-age students that follows the decline in births after the 2008 recession. WICHE projects that high school graduates peaked with the Class of 2025 at 3.8 to 3.9 million and will fall to below 3.4 million by 2041, about 13% fewer. Colleges that depend on recent high school graduates will have a smaller pool to recruit from.

When does the enrollment cliff start?

The number of high school graduates peaked in 2025, so the decline starts with the Class of 2026. WICHE projects a gradual slide to 3.1% below 2023 levels by 2030, a relatively stable stretch from about 2028–29 to 2034–35, and a steeper decline to 10.3% below 2023 by 2041. The Northeast and Midwest have already seen declines.

Will the enrollment cliff make it easier to get into college?

For many colleges, probably somewhat, but not evenly. Schools that already admit most applicants will compete harder for students as the pool shrinks, especially in the Northeast, Midwest and West. Highly selective colleges are unlikely to change much: Common App applications to the most selective members still grew 3% in 2025–26. No dataset yet shows admission standards falling because of the cliff.

Which states will have the biggest drop in high school graduates?

WICHE projects the largest declines from 2023 to 2041 in Hawaii (−33%), Illinois (−32%), California (−29%), New York (−27%), West Virginia (−26%), Wyoming (−23%) and New Mexico (−21%). California, Illinois, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania together account for about three-fourths of the national decline in total graduates.

How many colleges have closed because of falling enrollment?

BestColleges counts at least 49 public or private nonprofit colleges or campuses that closed or announced closure since March 2020, plus 40 mergers, as of April 2026, and at least 12 that merged or closed in 2025. Closures have several causes, including finances and enrollment. A Philadelphia Fed model estimates that an abrupt 15% enrollment drop could add up to 80 closures a year.

What should students applying in 2027 to 2030 do about the enrollment cliff?

Mostly the same things as before, with better information. Build a strong GPA and a solid test plan, apply to a balanced list, and look closely at colleges in shrinking regions, which may offer more merit aid to attract students. Check a college’s financial health and enrollment trend before committing, since small private colleges with falling enrollment face the most pressure.

Watch: video explainers

Inside the Enrollment Cliff Hitting US Colleges — video thumbnail — **Inside the Enrollment Cliff Hitting US Colleges** · Bloomberg Television
A Bloomberg segment on how falling student numbers are affecting US colleges, from a financial-news perspective.

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